Will Aging Pomlation Lead to New Rural Cooperative Medical Insurance System go “Bankruptcy”——Based on the Evaluation of Financial Burden Rat

随着人口老龄化加剧以及疾病谱系的变化,以财政补贴为主要筹资来源的新农合是否具有财政可持续性将是一个重大的理论问题与现实问题。本文测算了2013-2100年人口老龄化对我国新农合财政负担率影响。结果表明,我国财政补贴负担率始终处于较低水平,呈倒"U"形结构。人口老龄化对财政负担率的影响可分为三个阶段:2013-2033年,人口老龄化率与财政负担率同步提高,人口老龄化发挥正向推动作用;2034-2070年,人口老龄化率持续提高,财政负担率却稳步下降,人口老龄化的推动作用被弱化;2071-2100年,人口老龄化率与财政负担率同时呈现下降趋势,人口老龄化发挥了缓解作用。根源就在于我国老年人口增加与非老年人口、总人口下降同步进行,人口老龄化对医疗费用向上的推动效应被总人口下降的缓解效应所抵消。Financial sustainability of the NRCMIS subsidies by public finance is the key of system operation along with increasingly serious of aging population in our country.In financial subsidies burden model,we separate demographic structure factor from other factors to build population factor. Furthermore,we decompose the population factor into the elderly population factor and non-elderly population factor,and assess the effect of aging population on financial burden rate of NRCMIS between 2013-2100. The result shows that the rate is always much low and appear to inverted"U"type which we can divide into three stages. First,financial burden rate is increasing year by year with aging rate which generate positive effect from 2013-2033. Second,the aging rate keeps increasing,but the financial burden rate steadily declines from 2034-2070. At last,financial burden rate is decreasing year by year with aging rate which generate negative effect from 2071-2100. The reason of this result is determined by demographic structure in our country. Increasing elderly population is consistent with the declining of non-elderly population and the total population. The positive effect of aging population on health care costs is offset by negative effect of total population on health care costs.南昌大学中青年教师出国研修计划资